During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Baltic economies performed better than expected, but 2022 could be different. Since mid-2021 the economic growth forecasts for the Baltic States for 2022 have been reduced several times, while inflation continues to rise faster than expected. And the risks to the economy are increasing. Rising inflation and the energy crisis in Europe are having a negative impact on both consumers and businesses, and natural gas futures prices for the second half of 2022 are currently about 3 times higher than in recent years. This means that energy prices in the Baltics may continue to rise in the second half of the year. According to my forecasts, if current price levels are maintained in the long run, the GDP growth of the Baltic States in the coming years could be 2-4 percentage points lower than currently forecast. And the external environment may also become less favourable in 2022. Inflation is not only an economic problem but also a political one, which may mean less support for the economies. The US will raise interest rates this year, the global debt burden is high and the financial markets are already starting to signal a slowdown in the global economy. The budget deficits will also have to be reduced in the Baltics, and in Latvia, after the forthcoming Saeima elections in the autumn, the room for manoeuvre in the budget will most likely be very small. In global industry, such strong demand for goods is unlikely to be sustainable, while differences between Lithuania and China have the potential to negatively affect industry in Lithuania. Therefore, in my opinion, there may be unpleasant surprises in the economy in the second half of 2022.