The COVID-19 pandemic remains a risk to the economy, although experience in other countries shows that vaccines significantly reduce the risk of serious illness and mortality. Unfortunately, the coverage of COVID-19 vaccination in the Baltics is one of the lowest in Europe and lags far behind its neighbors, so new virus outbreaks and economic constraints are possible in the autumn. However, the economy as a whole is in a very strange situation. The COVID-19 pandemic is hopefully coming to an end, with the global economy growing at a rapid pace, but this is achieved with the help of very extensive support measures. At the same time, there is considerable potential for recovery in the services sector, but rising inflation is increasingly prompting central banks and governments to reduce support measures. Meanwhile, consumption of electrical goods, construction materials and some other durable goods is currently very high and could decline as the services sector recovers. Uncertainty about deliveries in the autumn, as well as the winter shopping season, forces traders to place larger orders than necessary. In the short term, this further increases demand and exacerbates supply problems, and industrial orders continue to grow. Therefore, the normalization of the global production and supply system will take time and may not take place until next spring. However, inventory levels could be restored next year, which could mean a decline in demand in global industry. The possible slowdown in the global industrial cycle at the end of this year, as well as at the beginning of next year, is already signaled by the decline in Chinese producers' sentiment in recent months and the slowdown in credit impulse. In recent years, this has signaled a weakening of global production demand over the next 9-12 months. Measures to support the advances economies are also being reduced, so the risk of overheating the wage inflation spiral seems small to me at the moment. However, a longer period of inflation cannot be completely ruled out, which could force central banks to limit their support measures more sharply. At the moment, there is no reason to think that growth in the Baltics will not continue. Growth will certainly slow down, but the slowdown is from a very high growth rate, but the economic growth forecasts for 2022 in the Baltics may turn out to be too optimistic.